Part 1 — A high-level overview of the bull and bear case on Ginkgo and how we got here
I’ll keep it short and sweet. “DNA will make Wall Street history as Google and Microsoft did.”
This is probably one of the most balanced analysis out there... Well done! As a long-time investor in Amyris and knowing some of my peers online, we are not dismissive of Ginkgo's scientific ability. For instance, both Ginkgo and Amyris have managed to come up with CBG-producing yeast strains in the past 2 years and that's a respectable achievement (though we are not sure yet of Ginkgo's strain's performance in the industrial tanks whereas Amyris is already producing in 200,000 liter tanks).
But our concern is really very simple: their valuation relative to peers is simply just too high. Some might even argue that the valuation of their peers - like Zymergen after the Hyaline episode and CEO's departure - is already high to begin with. It seems like success is already priced in (for Ginkgo) despite having not yet proven the scaling of their customers base (which is what their foundry biz is entirely about).
Awesome writing and detail! 👏 Subscribed