This is probably one of the most balanced analysis out there... Well done! As a long-time investor in Amyris and knowing some of my peers online, we are not dismissive of Ginkgo's scientific ability. For instance, both Ginkgo and Amyris have managed to come up with CBG-producing yeast strains in the past 2 years and that's a respectable achievement (though we are not sure yet of Ginkgo's strain's performance in the industrial tanks whereas Amyris is already producing in 200,000 liter tanks).
But our concern is really very simple: their valuation relative to peers is simply just too high. Some might even argue that the valuation of their peers - like Zymergen after the Hyaline episode and CEO's departure - is already high to begin with. It seems like success is already priced in (for Ginkgo) despite having not yet proven the scaling of their customers base (which is what their foundry biz is entirely about).
Thank you for reading and posting your thoughtful comment! I love learning from others and it's certainly helpful to hear from the perspective of a long-time Amyris investor. Your comment about how success is already priced in despite not having proven scaling is spot on.
I agree - scalability and valuation are key concerns. Earlier today Simon from ARK replied and mentioned how Ginkgo helps "optimize bioprocess design parameters" for their customers, but admitted that simulation doesn't always translate 1:1 to commercial scale.
Zymergen is on my radar, but I don't want to draw too many parallels with Ginkgo since each company is different, but it's certainly a cautionary rale to be wary of.
It can be difficult to discuss scaling as it can mean a huge spectrum. For example, the scale of production for a specialty fragrance chemical or an enzyme may be vastly smaller than scaling for a commodity product like biofuel. You'd face unique challenges when u go up scaling spectrum. You may want to check this post out on the r/Amyris channel on Reddit for an explainer : https://www.reddit.com/r/Amyris/comments/q7ccwf/on_why_industrial_scaling_is_so_challenging_and/
Nonetheless, it is a fascinating time for synbio as a new industry. We see players taking on different approaches - Ginkgo is going for the horizontal model, Amyris and Zymergen taking on the vertical integration model. The TAM up for disruption is huge... There will be space for many players.
That being said, I would have invested into Ginkgo if they get listed several quarters down the road to prove that they can grow their customer base at the rate they have been aiming for.
I’ll keep it short and sweet. “DNA will make Wall Street history as Google and Microsoft did.”
It certainly can be! I would love to see a future where synthetic biology thrives. I love this artwork so much: https://www.pixiv.net/en/artworks/13461444
This is probably one of the most balanced analysis out there... Well done! As a long-time investor in Amyris and knowing some of my peers online, we are not dismissive of Ginkgo's scientific ability. For instance, both Ginkgo and Amyris have managed to come up with CBG-producing yeast strains in the past 2 years and that's a respectable achievement (though we are not sure yet of Ginkgo's strain's performance in the industrial tanks whereas Amyris is already producing in 200,000 liter tanks).
But our concern is really very simple: their valuation relative to peers is simply just too high. Some might even argue that the valuation of their peers - like Zymergen after the Hyaline episode and CEO's departure - is already high to begin with. It seems like success is already priced in (for Ginkgo) despite having not yet proven the scaling of their customers base (which is what their foundry biz is entirely about).
Thank you for reading and posting your thoughtful comment! I love learning from others and it's certainly helpful to hear from the perspective of a long-time Amyris investor. Your comment about how success is already priced in despite not having proven scaling is spot on.
I agree - scalability and valuation are key concerns. Earlier today Simon from ARK replied and mentioned how Ginkgo helps "optimize bioprocess design parameters" for their customers, but admitted that simulation doesn't always translate 1:1 to commercial scale.
https://twitter.com/sbarnettARK/status/1450567724564897796?s=20
Zymergen is on my radar, but I don't want to draw too many parallels with Ginkgo since each company is different, but it's certainly a cautionary rale to be wary of.
Thanks for sharing!
It can be difficult to discuss scaling as it can mean a huge spectrum. For example, the scale of production for a specialty fragrance chemical or an enzyme may be vastly smaller than scaling for a commodity product like biofuel. You'd face unique challenges when u go up scaling spectrum. You may want to check this post out on the r/Amyris channel on Reddit for an explainer : https://www.reddit.com/r/Amyris/comments/q7ccwf/on_why_industrial_scaling_is_so_challenging_and/
Nonetheless, it is a fascinating time for synbio as a new industry. We see players taking on different approaches - Ginkgo is going for the horizontal model, Amyris and Zymergen taking on the vertical integration model. The TAM up for disruption is huge... There will be space for many players.
Yep that’s right - you’re the second person to mention r/amyris to me, I will definitely check it out!
That being said, I would have invested into Ginkgo if they get listed several quarters down the road to prove that they can grow their customer base at the rate they have been aiming for.
Awesome writing and detail! 👏 Subscribed
Thank you very much Aakash! Glad you found it interesting and helpful.